Warren Buffett sine investorbrev er en gullmine.
I 1964 la et ungt investeringsgeni frem “Our Method Of Operation”.
Her beskrev 33 år gamle WB hvordan han kategoriserte aksjene sine. Han kalte de generals, workouts og controlls.
Our three investment categories are not differentiated by their expected profitability over an extended period of time. We are hopeful that they will each, over a ten or fifteen year period, produce something like the ten percentage point margin over the Dow that is our goal.
Generals
Generals var undervurderte aksjer basert i all hovedsak på kvantitativ analyse, men også kvalitativ analyse. Han skriver at det ikke er noen indikasjoner på at disse vil utvikle seg fordelaktig i det kortsiktige bildet.
There is often little or nothing to indicate immediate market improvement. The issues lack glamour or market sponsorship.
Generalene var selskaper han kunne kjøpe billig og deretter la ligge.
Their main qualification is a bargain price; that is, an overall valuation on the enterprise substantially below what careful analysis indicates its value to a private owner to be.
Han var villig, og til og med forventet nesten, at disse vil underprestere på kort sikt. Over tid ville de derimot gi han tilfredsstillende avkastning. En av bærebjelkene blant disse aksjene var prinsippet om margin of safety.
Workouts
Workouts var aksjer med en tydelig katalysator. I disse aksjene kunne han i større grad estimere når verdien ville materialisere seg. De oppsto fra blant annet spinoffs, fusjoner, likvideringer og reorganiseringer.
Han skriver,
In this category we are not talking about rumors or “inside information” pertaining to such developments, but to publicly announced activities of this sort. We wait until we can read it in the paper.
Et eksempel på dette i nyere tid er Microsoft sitt oppkjøp av Activision Blizzard.
I Januar 2022 annonserte Microsoft at de ville kjøpe Activision Blizzard for $95 per aksje. Microsoft forventer at salget skal være avklart i Juni 2023. Etter annonseringen har aksjekursen til AB stått i intervallet $74 – $82.
Her så Warren Buffett et arbitrage veddemål, med andre ord en god gammeldags workout. Siden annonseringen har Warren Buffett kjøpt seg opp i AB.
Han har sagt at dette er hans veddemål. “It is my purchases, not the manager who bought it some months ago”, og “If the deal goes through we make some money, and if it doesn’t go through who knows”.
Han skriver i investorbrevet sitt fra 1964 om workouts,
The risk pertains not primarily to general market behavior (although that is sometimes tied in to a degree), but instead to something upsetting the applecart so that the expected development does not materialize. Such killjoys could include anti-trust or other negative government action, stockholder disapproval, withholding of tax rulings, etc.
Han gjør også et poeng ut av at avkastningen kan virke liten, men ikke sett ut i fra et annualisert perspektiv.
The gross profits in many workouts appear quite small. A friend refers to this as getting the last nickel after the other fellow has made the first ninety-five cents. However, the predictability coupled with a short holding period produces quite decent annual rates of return. This category produces more steady absolute profits from year to year than generals do. In years of market decline, it piles up a big edge for us; during bull markets, it is a drag on performance. On a long term basis, I expect it to achieve the same sort of margin over the Dow attained by generals.
Controlls
Dette var selskaper som han på et tidspunkt fikk en grad av kontroll over eller full kontroll. Det kunne være fra at han over tid kjøpte seg opp i en general eller at han kjøpte en stort blokk med aksjer i et selskap.
These are rarities, but when they occur they are likely to be of significant size. Unless we start off with the purchase of a sizable block or stock, controls develop from the general category. They result from situations where a cheap security does nothing price-wise for such an extended period of time that we are able to buy a significant percentage of the company’s stock.
Han skriver videre at målet med disse ikke var å være en aktiv eier, men heller la ledelsen gjøre jobben. Var det derimot noe han mente kunne bli gjort bedre, var han frempå.
We do not want to get active merely for the sake of being active. Everything else being equal I would much rather let others do the work. However, when an active role is necessary to optimize the employment of capital you can be sure we will not be standing in the wings.
Sammensetningen mellom generals, workouts og controlls var basert på tilfeldigheter og hvilke muligheter markedet ga han. Han gjør også et poeng ut av at utviklingen i etter 1 år ikke har noe å si.
As I have mentioned in the past, the division of our portfolio among the three categories is largely determined by the accident or availability. Therefore, in a minus year for the Dow, whether we are primarily in generals or workouts is largely a matter of luck, but it will have a great deal to do with our performance relative to the Dow. This is one or many reasons why a single year’s performance is of minor importance and, good or bad, should never be taken too seriously.
