Peter Lynchs 13 kriterier for en "perfekt aksje"
Peter Lynch forvaltet Magellan Fund mellom 1977 og 1990. Han oppnådde en gjennomsnittlig årlig avkastning på 29,2%. Her er hans 13 kriterier for en “perfekt aksje” som han beskriver det i boken One Up On Wall Street.
Kilde: One Up On Wall Street av Peter Lynch (Kap. 8)
(1) IT SOUNDS DULL—OR, EVEN BETTER, RIDICULOUS
“The perfect stock would be attached to the perfect company, and the perfect company has to be engaged in a perfectly simple business, and the perfectly simple business ought to have a perfectly boring name. The more boring it is, the better.”
(2) IT DOES SOMETHING DULL
“A company that does boring things is almost as good as a company that has a boring name, and both together is terrific. Both together is guaranteed to keep the oxymorons away until finally the good news compels them to buy in, thus sending the stock price even higher. If a company with terrific earnings and a strong balance sheet also does dull things, it gives you a lot of time to purchase the stock at a discount. Then when it becomes trendy and overpriced, you can sell your shares to the trend-followers.”
(3) IT DOES SOMETHING DISAGREEABLE
“Better than boring alone is a stock that’s boring and disgusting at the same time. Something that makes people shrug, retch, or turn away in disgust is ideal.”
(4) IT’S A SPINOFF
“Large parent companies do not want to spin off divisions and then see those spinoffs get into trouble, because that would bring embarrassing publicity that would reflect back on the parents. Therefore, the spinoffs normally have strong balance sheets and are well-prepared to succeed as independent entities. And once these companies are granted their independence, the new management, free to run its own show, can cut costs and take creative measures that improve the near-term and long-term earnings.”
(5) THE INSTITUTIONS DON’T OWN IT, AND THE ANALYSTS DON’T FOLLOW IT
“If you find a stock with little or no institutional ownership, you’ve found a potential winner. Find a company that no analyst has ever visited, or that no analyst would admit to knowing about, and you’ve got a double winner. When I talk to a company that tells me the last analyst showed up three years ago, I can hardly contain my enthusiasm”
(6) THE RUMORS ABOUND: IT’S INVOLVED WITH TOXIC WASTE AND/OR THE MAFIA
“It’s hard to think of a more perfect industry than waste management. If there’s anything that disturbs people more than animal casings, grease and dirty oil, it’s sewage and toxic waste dumps.”
“Waste Management [selskapet] is a better prospect even than Safety-Kleen because it has two unthinkables going for it: toxic waste itself, and also the Mafia. Everyone who fantasizes that the Mafia runs all the Italian restaurants, the newsstands, the dry cleaners, the construction sites, and the olive presses also probably thinks that the Mafia controls the garbage business. This fantastic assertion was a great advantage to the earliest buyers of shares in Waste Management, which as usual were underpriced relative to the actual opportunity.”
(7) THERE’S SOMETHING DEPRESSING ABOUT IT
“In this category my favorite all-time pick is Service Corporation International (SCI), which also has a boring name.”
“Now, if there’s anything Wall Street would rather ignore besides toxic waste, it’s mortality. And SCI does burials.”
“The best thing about this company is that it was shunned by most professional investors for years. Despite an incredible record, the SCI executives had to go out on cavalcades to beg people to listen to their story. That meant that amateurs in the know could buy stock in a proven winner with a record of solid growth in earnings, and at much lower prices than they’d have to pay for a hot stock in a popular industry. Here was the perfect opportunity—everything was working, you could see it happening, the earnings kept increasing, there was rapid growth with almost no debt—and Wall Street turned the other way.”
(8) IT’S A NO-GROWTH INDUSTRY
“In a no-growth industry, especially one that’s boring and upsets people, there’s no problem with competition. You don’t have to protect your flanks from potential rivals because nobody else is going to be interested. This gives you the leeway to continue to grow, to gain market share, as SCI has done with burials”
(9) IT’S GOT A NICHE
“I always look for niches. The perfect company would have to have one. Warren Buffett started out by acquiring a textile mill in New Bedford, Massachusetts, which he quickly realized was not a niche business. He did poorly in textiles but went on to make billions for his shareholders by investing in niches. He was one of the first to see the value in newspapers and TV stations that dominated major markets, beginning with the Washington Post.”
(10) PEOPLE HAVE TO KEEP BUYING IT
“I’d rather invest in a company that makes drugs, soft drinks, razor blades, or cigarettes than in a company that makes toys. In the toy industry somebody can make a wonderful doll that every child has to have, but every child gets only one each. Eight months later that product is taken off the shelves to make room for the newest doll the children have to have—manufactured by somebody else. Why take chances on fickle purchases when there’s so much steady business around?“
(11) IT’S A USER OF TECHNOLOGY
“Instead of investing in computer companies that struggle to survive in an endless price war, why not invest in a company that benefits from the price war —such as Automatic Data Processing? As computers get cheaper, Automatic Data can do its job cheaper and thus increase its own profits. Or instead of investing in a company that makes automatic scanners, why not invest in the supermarkets that install the scanners? If a scanner helps a supermarket company cut costs just three percent, that alone might double the company’s earnings.”
(12) THE INSIDERS ARE BUYERS
“When insiders are buying like crazy, you can be certain that, at a minimum, the company will not go bankrupt in the next six months. When insiders are buying, I’d bet there aren’t three companies in history that have gone bankrupt near term.“
(13) THE COMPANY IS BUYING BACK SHARES
“Buying back shares is the simplest and best way a company can reward its investors. If a company has faith in its own future, then why shouldn’t it invest in itself, just as the shareholders do?”